Dendreon has sales potential with their FDA approved product Provenge and also a potential pipeline. First let’s take a look at a timeline table of key events that the company has accomplished to date.
March 30, 2011
Provenge treatment for late stage metastatic prostate cancer will be covered by Medicare.
February 3, 2011
Dendreon announces the closing of convertible senior notes and raises 607M. With the 277M as of the end of 2010, bringing the total to approximately 884M cash on hand.
April 29, 2011
FDA approves Provenge for the treatment of men with advanced prostate cancer.
The company will announce results for the first quarter Monday May 2nd, and give guidance for the second quarter and remainder of the year. The street is looking for revenues of 28.86M and a loss of -.70 eps. The company is expecting full year 2011 revenue in the range of 350M to 400M and predicts that the majority of revenue will occur in the fourth quarter as their Los Angeles and Atlanta facilities come online.
A more important near-term focus for us will be second-quarter Provenge sales estimates. The current consensus is for $59 million. The second quarter sales will provide the most accurate measure of real patient demand to date, given the FDA’s recent approval for the manufacturing capacity expansion at Dendreon’s New Jersey plant.
Also of importance is when Dendreon reaches the 2,000th prescription for Provenge, forecasted by the company to occur in July. If patient No. 2000 occurs before July, I will be more confident that Provenge is on track to meet 2011 revenue targets. If patient number 2,000 comes later than July then the company may be behind full year revenue targets.
What I am expecting:
What I am expecting:
A) First quarter results in-line or slightly exceed analyst estimates of 29M, and the loss of -.70 eps.
B) Looking for guidance of 2nd quarter results slightly exceeding analyst estimates of 59M.
C) See if the company guides us if patient 2,000 is likely to occur in July as previously announced.
D) Year end revenue target of 350-400M. Assuming that L.A and Atlanta are scheduled to come online.
Technically DNDN is just below resistance at around $44.00, a close above this area would be bullish for the stock. Below is a chart of Dendreon.
Technically DNDN is just below resistance at around $44.00, a close above this area would be bullish for the stock. Below is a chart of Dendreon.
