Friday, March 30, 2012

Month of March Recap

The markets returned +3.21% during the month of March.  A 3.21% return annualized is approximately +36% for the year, which is four times the average stock market return.  So it was a strong month for stocks.  Below is a chart of the S&P 500.  Notice the upward trend line support.
Celgene (CELG) is a major holding of ours and we began buying the stock in the low 60's.  The company has several near term catalysts approaching in the 2nd quarter and beyond.  I do not believe the street has given this stock the respect it is due.  Below is a chart of CELG.
Bottom Line:  The overall market is performing well and looks like the move higher will continue into April.  Celgene is a key stock of ours, and we await several near term catalyst to push the shares higher.  The company continues to buy back stock in the open market, and should continue the buyback until the stock hits $100.00 a share, which I believe can happen sometime in 2012.  Thank you for stopping by.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Weekly Recap 3-23-2012

Just a quick look at markets around the world.  Japan and emerging markets have outperformed this 2012 year to date.  The US stock market representative of the S&P 500 index (SPY) has trailed other parts of the world to date, but has still put in a healthy gain so far.  Below is a chart of select stock markets around the world and their year to date results.
As shown above, world markets are putting in healthy returns so far in 2012, with the Nikkei Index in Japan leading the way, higher at + 19.77%. 

Bottom Line:  The returns of these markets around the world have exceeded expectations during the first quarter of 2012.  For now, markets look healthy and are trending higher, but I am expecting a correction sometime during the next few months prior to the 2012 political elections.  Thank you for visiting. 

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Celgene Chart Update

Celgene, (CELG) one of our larger holdings has made a multi-year high and is approaching the all time high set in 2008.  Today the stock moved on the rumor that Novartis (NVS) may be interested in purchasing the company for a huge premium at 115.00 per share price.  Though I do not give much credence to rumors, this one seems to make sense on several fronts.  The combined companies would become a Hematology leader worldwide. Below is a chart of CELG.  
The all time high for the stock is around 77.50, or just a 1.50 away from challenging that price.  Below is a monthly chart of CELG.
Bottom Line:  The overall market is moving nicely to the upside and CELG has just broke out to a new multi-year high is can now challenge the all time high of around 77.50.  Today's buyout rumor does make some sense, as the two companies CELG and NVS would have a nice Hematology worldwide product line.  Thank you for stopping by.  

Friday, March 2, 2012

Weekly Recap

The market looks a bit tired right now.  I would expect some sideways action or possibly a 4-6% pullback from the current area to relieve overbought readings.  Then a break higher above resistance to have a sustainable intermediate term market rally. Below is the support area I would expect the S&P 500 to pull back to.
CEN.TO Toronto, or (CENJF) US symbol, is a current holding of ours.  They are an oil exploration company with resources off the coast of Thailand.  This is one of the fastest growing companies that I have seen in the past 20 years. We originally bought in the 16.00 area and repurchased again around the 20.00 area.  Seventy percent of the stock is held by four insiders, making the float available to the public at about 35 million shares.  I believe the company will be purchased within the next 12 months at a premium to today's prices. Below is a weekly chart of CEN.TO.
Bottom Line:  The markets need some side ways to a small pullback, then a move above resistance to have a better chance of an intermediate market rally.  CEN has come a long way, but is still a cheap stock comparing its production and future resources, they should be an attractive acquisition for a larger company. Thank you for stopping by.

Disclosure:  Long CEN.TO