Saturday, April 26, 2014

MEIP: MEI Pharma ($8.10)

MEI Pharmaceuticals Inc., a development-stage oncology company, focuses on the clinical development for the treatment of cancer.  The companies lead drug Pracinostat, an orally available inhibitor is currently in phase 2 trials for the treatment of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), and acute myeloid leukemia (AML).
Financial Statistics:
$59.8 million cash
Debt - None
27.9 million fully diluted shares outstanding 
4.9 million shares in warrants, strike price $3.50
223 million market cap
Intellectual Property:
Pracinostat - Composition of matter to 2028, methods of use 2025
ME-344 - Composition of matter and methods of use to 2025
PWT 143 - Composition of matter 2031 and methods of use 2032
Market Opportunity Potential:
$1,491 Billion market in the U.S.
Safety:
Tested in 200+ patients in multiple phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials.
Readily manageable side effects consistent with current drugs of this class.
Timeline Catalyst:  
Pracinostat:  Front Line MDS study Intermediate-2 and High-Risk Patients.
-Expect to complete enrollment in Q3 2014, and unblind study in Q1, 2015.
Pracinostat:  Refractory MDS Study - Failure after initial HMA Therapy.
-Preliminary data expected at Ash December, 2014. 
Pracinostat:  Front Line AML study for elderly patients not suited for intensive chemotherapy.
-Preliminary data expected at Ash December, 2014.
Below is a daily chart of MEIP.

Bottom Line:  By the end of 2014 we should have a good grasp of how Pracinostat has been performing in three phase 2 clinical trials for MDS and AML.  Their lead drug  is an oral (as opposed to IV) therapy that has been well tolerated in over 200 + patients to date.  There is an unmet need for a well tolerated solution for the elderly population who are victims of MDS or AML.  Pracinostat is well tolerated, orally available, and MEI Pharma holds worldwide exclusivity on the drug.  Thank you for reading.  

Friday, April 11, 2014

Assessing the Recent Selloff

We're in the middle of a market pullback or correction.  The S&P is now down -4.3% from the high just last week.  A technical picture of where we stand today is below with comments.
Since 2013 the 140 day exponential moving (purple line) average has been good support for the S&P 500 index ETF SPY.  Also note that the RSI has hit the 30 reading or close on the prior pullbacks we have experienced.  To summarize this chart.  We are getting close to a moving average trend line and a 30 low reading on the RSI (relative strength index).  Both these areas have provided market pullback support in the past.
During the most recent pullback in February, we had hit the fibonacci 50% retracement level before reversing higher, and this current pullback (chart above) that we are experiencing is sitting right on the 50% retrace level, which is a typical retrace for an index prior to reversing higher.
The above chart illustrates what has currently occurred since we hit an all time high of 189.70 just recently. We have pulled back -4.3%.  I am targeting a -6% pullback which would run very similar to prior sell offs and put the index at support areas, from the first chart above.

Bottom Line:  Most of my technical indicators are signaling that we are getting close to at least a short term bottom on this current sell off.  We are close to the first chart above's support line (140 exponential moving average), we hit the 50% retrace on the middle fibonacci chart, and we are currently in the range of prior pullbacks experienced over the past year (third chart) of -4% to -7% range.  There has been no technical damage done to the intermediate to longer term time frame chart perspective for the S&P 500 from where we currently stand today.  Thank you for reading.