Concert Pharmaceuticals will be entering a phase 2 clinical trial with CTP-543, for the indication of moderate to severe alopecia areata, in the first quarter of 2017. Proof-of-concept (POC), has already been indicated in a small phase 2 academic study by Columbia University with results of the auto-immune disease here JCI. We are estimating total revenue that CTP-543 could achieve if FDA approved for alopecia areata, based on some recent Dermatologic Drug Prices.
Up to 650,000 affected with alopecia areata U.S. any given time (Concert literature)
30% to 50% may have moderate to severe (195,000 to 325,000) US
Mid range population moderate to severe = 260,000 US
Market capture rate of 25% = 65,000 US moderate to severe
Price per tablet once daily = $23.33 or $700 per month
Peak revenue estimate $700 x 12 x 65,000 = $546 million
Risks to Assessment
Revenue split with another equally effective drug
The pool of potential patients is too high
Market capture rate of 25% too high
$700 monthly, or $23.33 per tablet
Insurance does not cover the indication
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