Based on the Acadia Pharmaceuticals first quarter conference call, pricing for the recently approved Nuplazid for Parkinson's Disease Psychosis (PDP), will be around $23,400 per year, wholesale acquisition cost (WAC), much higher than we anticipated. We previously relied on company information of around $13,000 per year for Nuplazid. The adjustment higher makes a large valuation difference, and puts the recent price of ($27.50) rather cheap based on a potential buyout scenario.
1,000,000 With Parkinson's in US.
30% develop PDP or Parkinson's Disease Psychosis at some point.
300,000 total patients with PDP.
50% penetration rate of those with the psychosis.
150,000 the actual number treated for PDP with Nuplazid out of 1 million Parkinson's total victims.
$65.00 = WAC price per tablet per day of treatment. Equates to around $23,400 per year.
$32.50 = Sales to Acadia per 34 mg tablet after discounts various distributors.
$11,700 = Per patient ACAD annual revenue, ($32.50 per day * 30 days * 12 months)
$1.755 billion = Total peak revenue to ACAD, (150,000 patients * $11,700 annual revenue to ACAD) U.S. Parkinson's Disease Psychosis only. If applying a buyout scenario of four times peak revenue = $1.755 x 4 = $7.020b valuation / 130k (shares outstanding) = $ 54.00 share price. It would take 85,470 (PDP) patients treated with Nuplazid to achieve $1 billion in revenue. Acadia did pre-marketing, and estimated around 11,000 Parkinson's Disease doctors in the U.S. Each doctor would have to treat 7.77 (PDP) patients with Nuplazid to achieve the $1b in revenue.
Thank you for reading.
1,000,000 With Parkinson's in US.
30% develop PDP or Parkinson's Disease Psychosis at some point.
300,000 total patients with PDP.
50% penetration rate of those with the psychosis.
150,000 the actual number treated for PDP with Nuplazid out of 1 million Parkinson's total victims.
$65.00 = WAC price per tablet per day of treatment. Equates to around $23,400 per year.
$32.50 = Sales to Acadia per 34 mg tablet after discounts various distributors.
$11,700 = Per patient ACAD annual revenue, ($32.50 per day * 30 days * 12 months)
$1.755 billion = Total peak revenue to ACAD, (150,000 patients * $11,700 annual revenue to ACAD) U.S. Parkinson's Disease Psychosis only. If applying a buyout scenario of four times peak revenue = $1.755 x 4 = $7.020b valuation / 130k (shares outstanding) = $ 54.00 share price. It would take 85,470 (PDP) patients treated with Nuplazid to achieve $1 billion in revenue. Acadia did pre-marketing, and estimated around 11,000 Parkinson's Disease doctors in the U.S. Each doctor would have to treat 7.77 (PDP) patients with Nuplazid to achieve the $1b in revenue.
Thank you for reading.
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