Axsome Therapeutics - Development Pipeline

Knowing a companies pipeline of drug candidates, might give us a view of future products of commercialization, should everything work out favorable in clinical trials. With the 4th quarter of 2023 almost completed, a check on the pipeline of Axsome Therapeutics heading into 2024, is below.

                                                                

The important readout will the AXS-05 phase 3, Alzheimer's Agitation clinical trial, to be completed in the first half of 2024. Another notable readout, will be the Solriamfetol phase 3 for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), scheduled in the second half of 2024. Thank you for reading.

Ethereum Chart Update

Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin, is having a solid year to the upside, thus far, up around 65%. The weekly chart looks bullish on an intermediate basis, (weeks to months) with higher lows occurring, prior to the previous low. The current move higher has been strong, but met with an older resistance point, around the 2120 level, where ETH pulled back from there back in May.  A breakout above that 2120 resistance level, could take it higher 18% to my target point of 2500, per weekly chart below. Thank you for reading. 

Axsome 3rd Quarter Financial Results

Axsome released their third quarter financial results on Monday. Just a few highlights from the just completed impressive quarter, are below. 

• Auvelity for MDD sales totaled $37.7 million for the quarter
• Sunosi for narcolepsy sales totaled $20.1 million for the quarter
• $417 million in cash on hand, end of quarter
• AXS-12 clinical trial for cataplexy, to read out in the first quarter, 2024
• AXS-05 clinical trial for Alzheimer's Disease Agitation, complete first half of 2024

Below is up to date, weekly prescriptions of Auvelity for MDD. Thank you for reading.

      

2023 Asset Performance - 3rd Quarter

With the 3rd quarter of 2023 just completed, a quick check on the performance of what different assets, have returned to date. What's notable is the sharp fall of bonds going negative, as interest rates have surged. Interest rates and the price of bonds have a negative correlation.  Cryptocurrency, including bitcoin and ethereum, along with stocks are still in the green end of third quarter. Chart below, thank you for reading.

  

Auvelity Prescription Update

Auvelity weekly prescription data continues to rise, at a nice measured pace. In the current third quarter of the  launch, the company has achieved over 5,000 weekly prescriptions. Prescription data provided by Bloomberg.   

Ethereum - Price Movement

Ethereum is a volatile cryptocurrency asset. Just like other assets have their correlations, or non-correlations for price movement, the same goes with Ethereum. The ten year treasury yield has been spiking along with interest rate increase. Ethereum has a high non-correlation, with the ten year bond yield, symbol $TNX. Because higher interest rates, mean higher borrowing costs, people could potentially start spending less, investing and speculating less. The chart below shows this non-correlation, in other words, as interest rates rise on the ten year yield, ETH goes down in price. A -1.00 is a perfect non-correlation and a 1.00 is perfect correlation. Currently the correlation is a -68. Chart below, has ETH in white and the ten year in red. Thank you for reading.

Axsome 2nd Quarter 2023 Financial Results

Axsome released their second quarter financial results on Monday August 7th. Just a few highlights from the just completed impressive quarter, are below. 

• Auvelity for MDD sales totaled $27.6 million for the quarter
• Sunosi for narcolepsy sales totaled $19.1 million for the quarter
• $468 million in cash on hand, end of quarter
• AXS-12 clinical trial for cataplexy, to read out in the fourth quarter, 2023
• AXS-05 clinical trial for Alzheimer's Disease Agitation, complete first half of 2024

Below are weekly prescriptions of Auvelity for MDD. Thank you for reading.  

2023 Asset Class Performance - 2nd Quarter

With the 2nd quarter of 2023 just completed, a quick check on the performance of different assets, have returned to date. Cryptocurrency, including bitcoin and ethereum, along with stocks put in a strong first half performance, chart below. All five assets tracked were in positive territory. Click on chart for larger image. Thanks for reading.

 

Axsome Future Revenue Guidance

Up until this week, Axsome Therapeutics has not given long-term peak revenue guidance for each of their future indications. Here's a quick glimpse of the numbers that they have provided the investment community. I am only posting the companies low estimate of revenue expectations.

• Auvelity                1.0B
• Sunosi                    .3B
• AXS-05 Alz Ag    1.5B
• AXS-05 Smoke     .5B
• AXS-07 Migraine .5B
• AXS-12 Narcoly   .5B
• AXS-14 Fibromy  .5B
• Solriamfetol        1.0B

Total for the low estimate of company guidance for all their indications, is $ 5.8 billion peak. If we were to assume an acquisition of the company based on their low end of guidance, and a conservative buyout of 1.5X peak revenue, we would get 5.8 billion x 1.5 = 8.7 billion. Then 8.7 / 45 million shares outstanding (assumption) = $ 193.33 share price.

Below, I'm including the weekly Auvelity prescription numbers as reported by Bloomberg. From the chart below, there is a steady ramp of increase seen from Q1 to Q2. Click on chart for larger image. Thank you for reading.

Axsome 1st Quarter 2023 Financial Results

Axsome released their first quarter financial results on Monday May 8th. Just a few highlights from the just completed impressive quarter, are below. 

• Auvelity for MDD sales totaled $15.7 million for the quarter
• Sunosi for narcolepsy sales totaled $12.9 million for the quarter
• $246 million in cash on hand, end of quarter
• AXS-12 clinical trial for cataplexy, to read out in the second quarter

Axsome's share price has been moving steadily higher the past couple weeks. Below is a monthly chart of AXSM stock, which has just closed at it's highest level seen in the past two years. Thank you for reading. 

Auvelity - First Quarter Prescription Data

Axsome's first quarter of 2023 (and first ever completed quarter) weekly prescription data for Auvelity, from IQVIA is below. Axsome's launch of Auvelity for MDD, has been strong to date. Notice that there were thirteen weeks in this first quarter of 2023. Total scripts = 29,780 via IQVIA for the first quarter. Thank you for reading.

1/06/23 1300     2/03/23 1850     3/03/23 2525     

1/13/23 1650      2/10/23 2499      3/10/23 2726

1/20/23 1835      2/17/23 2380      3/17/23  2819

1/27/23 1750      2/24/23 2546      3/24/23 3000

                                                                 3/31/23 2900

2023 Asset Class Performance - 1st Quarter

An eventful first quarter of 2023 just completed. It was all about Alternative Investments that led the way. Cryptocurrency, including bitcoin and ethereum, along with gold put in a strong first quarter performance, chart below.  

We'll continue to track the asset classes above throughout the year. Thanks for reading.

Auvelity - Two Month Prescription Data

The first and second month, of Axsome's first quarter of 2023 prescription data from IQVIA is below. Axsome's launch of Auvelity for MDD, has been strong to date.

1/06/2023 1300     2/03/2023 1850

1/13/2023 1650      2/10/2023 2499

1/20/2023 1835      2/17/2023 2380

1/27/2023 1750      2/24/2023 2546

Ethereum -Technical Analysis

Ethereum the second largest cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin, has shown a nice return in 2023, higher by around +28%. But, as asset prices rise, pullbacks become inevitable, and healthy for further gains ahead. Fibonacci retracement is a common way of understanding the extent to which an asset is retracing the most recent high or recent low. Below is a daily chart of Ethereum, with Fibonacci. Typically I would expect a healthy pullback to the 50% retracement level, which would put ETH at the 1431. Also possible, is the present pullback, at the 38.2% level could hold as support before the next move higher. Daily chart below.    

It will be interesting to see where Ethereum trades from here. If the 38.2 % pullback holds or retraces lower to the 50% fibonacci level around 1431. Thank you for reading.

Auvelity - One Month Prescription Data

The first month, of their first quarter of 2023 prescription data from IQVIA is below. Note that there was a holiday in the week of 1/27/23 which may have accounted for the slight drop. Axsome's launch of Auvelity for MDD, has been strong to date.

1/06/2023 1300

1/13/2023 1650

1/20/2023 1835

1/27/2023 1750

Auvelity Week Twelve Prescriptions

Axsome Therapeutics, week twelve prescriptions for Auvelity, is the second week of a new quarter of revenue, for the companies recently approved MDD drug. These first two weeks of the first quarter of 2023 will also start the first complete, 12 week quarter for Auvelity since approval. The launch is off to a good start. Stats from IQVIA.

Week 11  01/06/23 = 1300

Week 12  01/13/23 = 1650

2023 - Asset Class Performance

A quick look at a two week chart of returns for some of the major asset classes; stocks, bonds, gold, ethereum, and bitcoin. Easy to see in the chart below, all five of those asset classes have appreciated quite substantially in the first two weeks of 2023.

     

Are the markets factoring in tame inflation (CPI readings) moving forward, and the federal reserve halting or reversing interest rates over the next few months?  That seemed to spark the rally in assets, after the latest CPI reading. That assumption may be early, and why monitoring the monthly inflation data, will be important. Thank you for reading.