Saturday, November 25, 2017

Concert Pharmaceuticals - $22.93

Using technical analysis as a tool to track where your stock has been trading, and potentially heading is interesting. A weekly chart of Concert Pharmaceuticals, CNCE is below.
The all-time high for the stock is right at the $25.00 dollar mark, which occurred in 2015. The company has since evolved with a patent victory, and the broadening of the pipeline, which will be announced in early 2018. INCY is a stock we currently do not hold, but are tracking. The company is the owner of the drug Ruxolitinib, commercially known as Jakafi, a Janus Kinase Inhibitor (JAK). A weekly chart is below.
INCY is down around 33% from it's recent high of around $149.00, creating a lower risk entry point in the near future. The relative strength index (RSI) is near the two year low, as confirmation. Lastly, the S&P 500 has been on a tare higher throughout 2017 without any kind of meaningful pullback at all. The S&P 500 is higher around 18% on the year. Notice the RSI on the weekly chart below, is in very overbought territory, the highest reading that it's seen during the last three years.

Bottom Line: Charting stocks and indices can be interesting, and help to create better, lower risk entry points for the stocks that we are interested in. CNCE is approaching the all-time high and a breakthrough of the prior resistance of $25.00 would lead to fresh highs. INCY has been sold off creating a lower risk entry point sometime in the future. The S&P 500 on the weekly chart is as overbought more than anytime during the last three years.  Thank you for reading.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Concert Pharmaceuticals 3rd Quarter Results - $17.53

The company announced third quarter results on Thursday 11-9-17. The company benefited from the sale of CTP-656 to Vertex as a one-time revenue that produced results of $5.61 in earnings per share for the quarter. More notable were some other developments.
  • Cash runway of $207 million expected to last into 2021
  • Expanded pipeline with a new neurological indication forthcoming
  • A second indication for CTP-543 will be announced in 1st quarter of 2018
  • Phase 2A for Alopecia Areata 4mg dose completed enrollment
  • Data Monitoring Committee to give safety opinion around February 2018 4mg dose
  • PGR  (Post Grant Review) of Incyte's deuterated Ruxolitinib to be decided in January 2018
Bottom Line:
The next important catalyst to watch for is the PGR decision to be made in January of 2018, the DMC decision for 4mg of CTP-543 around February, and two new indications will be announced early 2018. Thank you for reading.