Saturday, June 17, 2023

Axsome Future Revenue Guidance

Up until this week, Axsome Therapeutics has not given long-term peak revenue guidance for each of their future indications. Here's a quick glimpse of the numbers that they have provided the investment community. I am only posting the companies low estimate of revenue expectations.

  • Auvelity                1.0B
  • Sunosi                    .3B
  • AXS-05 Alz Ag    1.5B
  • AXS-05 Smoke     .5B
  • AXS-07 Migraine .5B
  • AXS-12 Narcoly   .5B
  • AXS-14 Fibromy  .5B
  • Solriamfetol        1.0B
Total for the low estimate of company guidance for all their indications, is 5.8 billion peak. If we were to assume an acquisition of the company based on their low end of guidance, and a conservative buyout of 1.5X peak revenue, we would get 5.8 billion x 1.5 = 8.7 billion. Then 8.7 / 45 million shares outstanding (assumption) = $ 193.33 share price.

Below, I'm including the weekly Auvelity prescription numbers as reported by Bloomberg. From the chart below, there is a steady ramp of increase seen from Q1 to Q2. Click on chart for larger image. Thank you for reading.