ACOM Results

ACOM (Ancestry.com) reported fourth quarter earnings and gave guidance after the close today.  The report was better than I expected on several fronts and the stock was higher in after hours.

• Sequential subscriber numbers are estimated to increased by 10.75% in the first quarter of 2011 vs. recent quarter.
• Churn rate was 3.9% vs. prior September quarter of 4.0%.
• First quarter guidance was above estimates 86M to 88M vs. analyst guidance of 81M.
• ACOM expects 2011 total revenue at 372M vs. analyst estimates of 357M.
• The company expects 2011 full year subscribers to total 1.7M by the end of 2011, an annual increase of 22 %.
• 2011 revenue growth of 23% and earnings growth of 40% are solid numbers.

On a subscriber model comparison basis, I have ACOM trading at a forward 2012 p/e ratio of 21.29 vs. NFLX at 35.61, so at present prices ACOM is a good value.  Below is a chart of ACOM which has good support at the 50 day moving average, green line.

Bottom Line:  ACOM had a good fourth quarter report and guided revenues higher for the first quarter of 2011 and entire year.

Contact:  586-431-8000