Acadia Pharmaceuticals ($17.26)

We started back into Acadia Pharmaceuticals today, after being extremely patient, since selling shares the morning that the CEO announced resignation in March 2015.  We wrote about that here, Acadia CEO Resigns - Effective Immediately.  Fundamentally not much has changed with their lead drug Nuplazid.  They have an FDA potential approval date of May 1st, 2016.  A list of important reiterating facts are below. 

-Nuplazid will be the only approved drug for Parkinson's Disease Psychosis (PDP).
-Their patent runs through 2028 (prior to any Hatch-Waxman addition) in the U.S. and 2025 in the EU.  So approximately 12 years of exclusivity U.S., unless a new drug comes to market during that time frame.  
-The drug could receive premium pricing up to around $15,000 per year for PDP patients, and be seen as a cost savings for family and the medical system.
-Nuplazid may have the potential to treat Alzheimer's Agitation, which at present is another unmet need, as the company plans to run a phase 2 clinical trial mid 2016.  
-The drug could potentially be used as maintenance therapy for schizophrenia patients, as a safer alternative to current anti-psychotics.  
-The company currently has around 124 mn shares outstanding.
-Their cash position is around $500 mn.  
-ADCOM (advisory committee) will meet on March 29th.


Bottom Line:  A weak overall market and biotechnology in particular, has allowed us to buy back shares of ACAD at reasonable prices.  I am expecting a black box warning label upon approval around May 1st, but do not believe that will have a major impact on the success of Nuplazid for PDP.  Thank you for reading. 
 

GLPG1837 for Cystic Fibrosis

GLPG1837 has advanced into a phase 2 clinical trial for Cystic Fibrosis people with the G551D, or S1251N class III mutation.  This will be the first of two, phase 2 clinical trials testing the drug in CF. The Galapagos press release is here Galagapos starts SAPHIRA Phase 2 study.  In a previous post we compared the phase 1 clinical trial results of GLPG1837 and Concert's CTP-656 side by side, CTP-656 & GLPG1837 Drug Comparison.  The drug will be dosed twice daily, and the trial should be complete by the end of 2016.  Thank you for reading.
 

CTP-656 Clinical Trial Chronology

The company has advanced CTP-656 nicely since receiving U.S. patent in the fall of 2014. Below is a chronology of the drug's clinical progress.
    
    First Half 2017 - European switching study CTP-656, and Kalydeco.
✔ January 2017 - Start phase 2 for mono-therapy, various gating mutations.
✔ February 2016 - Food effect study in healthy male volunteers, solid oral dose.
✔ November 2015 - Multiple ascending dose (PK) crossover study, with CTP-656 and         Kalydeco in healthy volunteers, solid oral dose.
✔ March 2015 - Single ascending dose (PK) crossover study, with CTP-656, and Kalydeco in healthy volunteers, oral suspension.  Second part of phase 1.
✔ March 2015 - Phase 1, D9 and D18 analog (PK) comparison in healthy volunteers.  The first part of phase 1.
✔ 2012 - Pre-clinical D9, D18 and Kalydeco plasma study comparison in dogs.

Thank you for reading.

Vertex: Complete Response Letter (CRL) From U.S. FDA

On February 5th it was press released that Vertex Pharmaceuticals received a CRL from the FDA.  A Food and Drug Administration CRL is issued when the FDA communicates to a company that an application to market a drug (NDA, new drug application) will not be approved in it's present form, and that the review by the FDA has been complete.
  
Vertex submitted a supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for the already approved Kalydeco.  The sNDA was filed for Cystic Fibrosis people 2 years and older, who have one of 23 residual function mutations in the cystic fibrosis gene.   Eight of the 23 were represented in a phase 2A study. It is estimated that over 1,500 people in the U.S. have one of the 23 gene mutations. The numbers do not seem all that large.  But if you factor in that Kalydeco is priced around $300k for annual therapy, then the numbers become quite large, up to around $450mn in potential annual revenue for the company if the sNDA was approved.
The 23 residual function mutations included in the sNDA were: 2789+5G- > A, 3849+10kbC- > T, 3272-26A- > G, 711+3A- > G, E56K, P67L, R74W, D110E, D110H, R117C, L206W, R347H, R352Q, A455E, D579G, E831X, S945L, S977F, F1052V, R1070W, F1074L, D1152H, and D1270N.  The press release is here Vertex Complete Response Letter.  More than likely the CRL was issued to Vertex because only eight of the 23 residual function mutations were represented in the phase 2A study.  Thank you for reading.

Galapagos Updates Cystic Fibrosis Program

Galapagos (GLPG) and AbbVie developed a partnership aimed at treating 90% of the Cystic Fibrosis population with a triple combination drug therapy.  The triple combo will involve a potentiator and two correctors for patients with the F508del mutation.  Under the agreement dated back to September of 2013, Galapagos leads discovery and development through phase 2, shares Phase 3 responsibility with AbbVie.  Below is a list of potential candidates that GLPG will be taking to the clinic for further exploration. 

Potentiators:
GLPG1837  Completed phase 1 multiple dosing trial, and heading into phase 2 for G551D and S1251N CF 2016.  
GLPG2451  Additional potentiator expected to move into a phase 1 clinical trial 2Q 2016.

Correctors:
GLPG2222  First generation corrector began dosing in healthy volunteers January.  Expects top line results in Q2 2016.  GLPG receives $10 million milestone from ABBV.
GLPG2851  Another first generation corrector, aiming to initiate phase 1, end of 2016.  
GLPG2665  Next-generation corrector, expected to enter phase 1, middle of 2016.  
GLPG2737  Next-generation corrector, expected to enter phase 1, Q4, 2016.  

Bottom Line:  It's good to see a company attempt to improve upon the currently approved combo Orkambi for Cystic Fibrosis people.  By the end of 2016, we should at least have some indication how corrector GLPG2222 and possibly GLPG2665 have done in phase 1 clinical trials.  Thank you for reading.  

CTP-656 Cystic Fibrosis Market Opportunity

CTP-656 is the deutered version of Vertex drug Kalydeco.  Today, Vertex gave an updated sales forecast for Kalydeco at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference.  The company expects 2016 revenues in the range of $675 million.  Kalydeco is provided to Cystic Fibrosis patients as mono therapy for the G551D and R117H mutation.  The annual cost of the therapy is approximately $300,000 annually.
Concert Pharmaceuticals plans on seeking regulatory approval for CTP-656 as mono therapy for people with the G551D and other gating mutations.  What could peak revenue look like for this set of patients excluding the more common F508del.  Below is the worldwide patient population for Kalydeco as mono-therapy, excluding any combination therapies for the most common form of CF, the F508del mutation, for which Orkambi is prescribed for.

• G551D ages 6+ (US) 
• G551D ages 6+ (EU, AUS & CAN)  
• Gating, R117H & Ages 2-5
• 4,000 eligible patients (Vertex Pharmaceuticals 2015 Year End Presentation)

The unique situation Concert finds itself in, if CTP-656 potentially does get FDA approval as mono-therapy, is that the footprint for those 4,000 patients available, have already been established from being prescribed Kalydeco.  The switch to CTP-656 from Kalydeco, could happen seamlessly if the drug is marketed right.
 

Penetration rate of 70% = 2,800 patients
Annual therapy price of $240,000 (20% discounted)
Potential revenue 2,800 patients * $240,000 annual therapy = $672 million

The advantages that CTP-656 offers is a once daily, with less dietary restrictions, that should lead to higher adherence rates. Thank you for reading.

 

TRIAD 1 & 2 Recruiting

Avanir Pharmaceuticals, a subsidiary of Otsuka, has initiated both arms of the phase 3 clinical trial for Alzheimer's Agitation termed TRIAD, and the Long Term Extension Study for patients who have completed 12 weeks of  either TRIAD 1 or 2.  Patients will be enrolled into the long term extension NCT02446132 study based on the following criteria:

• Patient has successfully completed Studies 15-AVP-786-301, 15-AVP-786-302, or 12-AVR-131.
• Patients will be enrolled in the study for approximately 52 weeks.
• Approximately 550 patients will be enrolled at approximately 110 centers in the US.
• All patients enrolled will receive AVP-786, the treatment dose assigned will be masked to the patient, investigator, study staff, and the sponsor.

The long term extension study is scheduled to complete in July of 2019, approximately 52 weeks after TRIAD 1 and 2 have completed dosing with AVP-786.  This long term extension study may be important for the drug label the FDA assigns during the approval process, for agitation in patients with dementia of the Alzheimer's type.  

AVP-786 (AVP-923) has exhibited a consistent and mild safety profile, making the drug a unique candidate for elderly patients with behavioral problems due to Alzheimer's or other dementia related diseases.  A mild safety profile, compared to current anti-psychotics could also promote off-label prescribing potential, for the drug.  The safety profile of AVP-923 was written about in a post here Rexulti & AVP-923 Safety Profile Comparison. Thank you for reading. 
 

Assessing the Success of AVP-786 for Patients with Treatment Resistant Major Depressive Disorder

Assessing the success of a clinical trial depends on many factors.  Trial design, primary endpoint, prior drug trials, safety and tolerability, competitor success with similar drug, and what is deemed successful by FDA standards, are just a few factors to consider.  Avanir Pharmaceuticals is nearing the end of a phase 2 clinical trial for AVP-786 as Adjunctive Therapy in Patients with Major Depressive Disorder With Inadequate Response to Anti-Depressant Treatment in clinical trial NCT02153502.

The first important factor to consider is that AVP-786 is the deutered version of AVP-923.  Both drugs were tested in a Phase 1, Single-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Double-dummy, 2-way Crossover Study Comparing AVP-786 with AVP-923 here NCT02336347.  The two drugs exhibited a similar PK and safety profile.  This is important because we will be using data from two AVP-923 clinical studies that had a subset of patients tested for depression, with either the BDI-2 (Beck Depression Inventory-II) or the Cornell Depression Scale.

Avanir ran a phase 3 clinical trial with AVP-923 evaluating the safety and efficacy of AVP-923 in PBA (Pseudobulbar Affect) patients with ALS or MS, trial named (STAR) here NCT00573443. The mean change from baseline at day 84 in the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) Total Score was used as a secondary endpoint.  Patients with moderate depression on the BDI-II scale, greater than 18, scored a significant p=0.03 while taking AVP-923, 30mg dextromethorphan / 10mg quinidine.  Below is the Avanir, JP Morgan Healthcare Conference presentation in January 2014.

2014 JP Morgan Healthcare Conference
Treatment-Resistant MDD Clinical Rationale
The Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) was included as a secondary efficacy endpoint in the pivotal phase 3 trial in PBA patients
Major Depression Excluded
Among patients with baseline BDI-II scores >10, AVP-923 treatment was associated with a reduction in depression symptoms
STAR Trial; Avanir data on file

Endpoint BDI-II
(n=50)  -3.36  AVP-923 30/10
(n=55)    -2.3   AVP-923 20/10
(n=52)    -1.1    Placebo

P Value
0.065   AVP-923 30/10
0.378   AVP-923 20/10

"Among a subset of patients with baseline BDI-II scores > 18, AVP-923 30/10 was
associated with statistically significant improvement (p=0.03)".

Using the description below for the (p=0.03) subset, the trial had patients classified primarily in the moderate depression range, as the presentation listed major depression as excluded. The following is a breakdown of the BDI-II, which is a 21-item self-report instrument intended to assess the existence and severity of symptoms of depression, summed to give a single score. The BDI-II uses a 4-point for each item ranging from 0 to 3.

BDI-II Depression Scale
0-13 is considered minimal range 
14 to 19 mild depression
20 to 28 moderate depression
29 to 63 severe depression
  

In a phase 2 clinical trial for Alzheimer's patients experiencing agitation. Trial NCT01584440 utilized a secondary endpoint called the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD): which a statistical p=0.02 was observed. 

Bottom Line:
Although the number of patients were relatively small in the two above trials showing benefits of AVP-923 for depression, it does give us some guidelines to the probabilities for potential success in the current clinical trial coming to completion.  Thank you for reading.

Avanir Initiates (TRIAD) for Alzheimer's Agitation

Today it was announced that Avanir Pharmaceuticals (Otsuka) has initiated what they call their TRIAD clinical programs.  The clinical trials will utilize AVP-786 for the treatment of agitation in patients with Alzheimer's disease.  There will be two parts to the initial TRIAD program, Triad-1 which has been initiated, and Triad-2, which will be initiated in 2015 also. The clinicial trial should last around two years.  
  
TRIAD-1  NCT02442765
Dosing will be (DM/Q)  18/4.9 mg, or 28/4.9 mg over 12 weeks, and enroll 380 patients.
TRIAD-2   NCT02442778
Dosing will be (DM/Q)  28/4.9 mg, over 12 weeks, and enroll 325 patients.

Avanir also announced that the company has received "Fast Track" for this indication, and that AVP-786 used for their phase 2 clinical trial as adjunct for major depression disorder, will complete enrollment by the end of 2015.  

Bottom Line:  
The TRIAD program that has been announced today, is a big commitment to drug AVP-786, not only for agitation in Alzheimer's, but also adjunct for major depression disorder, residual schizophrenia, and disinhibition syndrome.  Thank you for reading.  
 

CTP-656 & GLPG1837 Drug Comparison

The North American Cystic Fibrosis Conference began yesterday.  Concert presented some new data for CTP-656, and Galapagos released phase 1 data for drug GLPG1837 today. Below is new data for drug GLPG1837, and an early comparison of CTP-656 and GLPG1837.

GLPG 1837

The half life (t 1/2) of 1837 runs between 6 and 15 hours depending on the dosage.  I selected a middle of the range dosage of 500 mg used in the phase 1, for comparison to CTP-656, regarding plasma concentration, and their distinct profiles.  

Plasma concentration 500 mg 12 hours fed around 200 (ng/mL) 
http://www.glpg.com/rd-cystic-fibrosis

 

CTP-656

The half life of CTP-656 is 15 hours with a 150 mg dose.  

plasma concentration 150 mg 12 hours fed 1306 (ng/mL)

Kalydeco

The half life (t 1/2) of Kalydeco is around 11 hours for a 150 mg dose.

plasma concentration 150 mg 12 hours fed 412 (ng/mL)

SAFETY PROFILE

-Concert said CTP-656 was similar to Kalydeco at all dose levels, and well tolerated up to 300 mg.

-Galapagos 500 mg dosed twice daily with six participants, all experienced tiredness, and five experienced headache, in healthy subjects.  Galapagos says final safety data is pending.

Bottom Line:

From the data above, it looks like GLPG1837 will have to be dosed twice daily judging by the half life range of 6-15 hours, and Galapagos did not breakout each individual dose with half life. Two distinct drugs, as plasma levels with CTP-656 150 mg at 12 hours is substantially higher than GLPG1837 500 mg.  Concert believes that QD dosage (once daily) is possible with CTP-656.  The company still has to run a multiple ascending dose phase 1 trial, evaluating CTP-656 against Kalydeco.  Galapagos plans to initiate a phase 2 clinical trial for CF patients by the end of 2015. Thank you for reading.  No positions in Galapagos.  
 

Is Adherence to Ivacaftor Suboptimal

From a recent issue of the Journal of Cystic Fibrosis, the authors make a strong case that twice daily Ivacaftor adherence is suboptimal.  Although used interchangeably, let's attempt to differentiate between compliance and adherence. If a doctor prescribes Ivacaftor 150 mg twice daily, and you accept and fill the prescription, you are in compliance with your doctor. Taking Ivacaftor twice daily is adherence to the prescription requirements.  The link to the article is below.  
Adherence_to_Ivacaftor_is_suboptimal
In the small sample study, the authors found that adherence was 61% among patients prescribed Ivacaftor.  Keep in mind they studied patients taking Ivacftor for the G551D mutation, which showed an improvement of over 10% percentage points in clinical trials, in the percent predicted FEV1.  The latest  FDA approved combo Orkambi (Ivacaftor and Lumacaftor) scored much lower on FEV1 for patients with F508del, than what Ivacaftor alone did for G551D patients. There are a few companies currently working on a once daily for CF patients, which could increase adherence rates to a higher level. Thank you for reading.

CTP-656 Phase 1 Single Dose Comparison

Just released today at the UK Cystic Fibrosis Trust Conference.  Data looks good, as the half life +34% compared to Kalydeco, and other PK measures by far outperformed.  Data below is a single dose of CTP-656 150 mg, compared to a single dose of Kalydeco 150mg.

C 12hr          +320%
C 24hr         +420%
AUC 24hr   +280%
C max          +100%
T 1/2              +34%

Of note, at steady state, Kalydeco exposure is predominately to less active metabolites compared to CTP-656.  This could potentially have CTP-656 being more efficacious than Kalydeco.

Bottom Line:  This was a good 15 minute presentation that displayed CTP-656 from a comparison, to Vertex drug Kalydeco.  The company reported that "CTP-656 was well-tolerated across all dose groups (75, 150, and 300 mg).  There were no serious adverse events reported in subjects who received CTP-656."  Vertex at present, holds a monopoly drug for CF patients, $300,000 per year therapy.  I think in two to three years, there could potentially be a competing therapy of drugs, lower priced, with a better drug to drug interaction profile, with potential for single daily dosing.  Thank you for reading.