Monday, September 5, 2011

Macro Data

We have an important week ahead for the markets with these reports to consider.
* ISM data on Tuesday
* Jobless claims on Thursday
* President Obama speech Thursday evening 7 p.m.(His latest proposal to create jobs and boost the economy).
There are fewer safe havens to preserve assets globally at the present time. Below is a chart of Germany's DAX index.  Germany is a top exporter of higher priced goods worldwide. What you see below is a market crash as the index is down approximately 30% from the high this year and has taken out the 2010 low today.
I have noticed a very tight correlation (markets that track each other) between Germany's DAX and the S$P 500 index.  So what is that correlation telling us now.  Below is a chart overlaying the two indexes.  Notice the recent skew today, or the fact that the correlation needs some catching up to do.  Is Germany's DAX index a leading indicator for US stocks?  It will be interesting to see how that correlation plays out in the coming weeks.
Finally just to show a comparison between 10 year bond yields today compared to the crash low yield of 2009.  Safety of capital is driving yields lower.
Bottom Line:  Markets around the world are on shaky ground as shown by the crash that has occurred with Germany's DAX index.  The 10 year bond yield shows a flight to safety also. The presidential address Thursday evening will have my attention to see if any new plans are in the works to create jobs and stimulate the economy. We have no positions above.  Thanks for stopping by.

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