Saturday, June 17, 2023

Axsome Future Revenue Guidance

Up until this week, Axsome Therapeutics has not given long-term peak revenue guidance for each of their future indications. Here's a quick glimpse of the numbers that they have provided the investment community. I am only posting the companies low estimate of revenue expectations.

  • Auvelity                1.0B
  • Sunosi                    .3B
  • AXS-05 Alz Ag    1.5B
  • AXS-05 Smoke     .5B
  • AXS-07 Migraine .5B
  • AXS-12 Narcoly   .5B
  • AXS-14 Fibromy  .5B
  • Solriamfetol        1.0B
Total for the low estimate of company guidance for all their indications, is $ 5.8 billion peak. If we were to assume an acquisition of the company based on their low end of guidance, and a conservative buyout of 1.5X peak revenue, we would get 5.8 billion x 1.5 = 8.7 billion. Then 8.7 / 54 million shares outstanding (assumption) = $ 161.00 share price.

Below, I'm including the weekly Auvelity prescription numbers as reported by Bloomberg. From the chart below, there is a steady ramp of increase seen from Q1 to Q2. Click on chart for larger image. Thank you for reading.